Tropical Cyclone Local Statement for South Walton; Coastal Bay; Coastal Gulf +5 more

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HLSTAE This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia **HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR STRENGTHENING ISAIAS** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch have been issued for Coastal Bay, Coastal Gulf, and South Walton A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, and Coastal Wakulla A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Coastal Dixie and Coastal Taylor * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for Coastal Bay, Coastal Gulf, and South Walton A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, and Coastal Wakulla A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Coastal Dixie and Coastal Taylor * STORM INFORMATION: About 720 miles southwest of Panama City or about 730 miles southwest of Apalachicola 22.4N 93.6W Storm Intensity 45 mph Movement East-northeast or 70 degrees at 8 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ ...ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEK... At 11 AM ET, Tropical Storm Isaias was still located in the Bay of Campeche and moving ENE at 8 mph. Isaias is forecast to turn northward in the next day or so and accelerate in forward speed towards the central Gulf coast. Steady strengthening is expected through much of the next couple of days, although some weakening may be possible just before landfall. The wind field is expected to expand considerably and may be lopsided towards the east, leading to windier conditions for portions of our area. There is still considerable uncertainty with both timing and track. Conditions could begin to deteriorate across the Panhandle as early as Friday morning. Given the expected large size of Isaias, the wind threat may extend well into the eastern portions of our area. An expected fast forward speed may also lead to the wind threat extending further inland. Storm surge will be possible along our whole coastline including the Panhandle and Apalachee Bay. Inundation values of 5 to 7 feet above ground level (AGL) are possible across the coastal Panhandle to Indian Pass, 3 to 5 feet AGL from Indian Pass to the Aucilla River, and 2 to 4 feet AGL from the Aucilla River to Yankeetown. Soggy conditions across the region from recent rainfall will make the area more sensitive to flooding from additional heavy rainfall from Isaias. Forecast rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches is expected across much of the area, with isolated amounts near 10 inches possible. If realized, these values would likely cause at least isolated flash flooding and some river flooding. It is too soon to determine exact tornado impacts, if any, but a few cannot be ruled out at this time. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across the FL Panhandle. Potential impacts include: Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to significant impacts across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend. * SURGE: Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts across the coastal Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area include: Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss. Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded. Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated. * WIND: Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across the Florida Panhandle. Potential impacts in this area include: Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the Florida Big Bend and Southeast Alabama. Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated. * TORNADOES: Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as near the Gulf of America or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of others. When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged. Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations. If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to area visitors. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Tallahassee FL around 5 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.